Support for Ukraine to repel Russian aggression remains stable in American society, despite the fact that the war launched by Russia has been going on for 15 months. Evidenced by the data published on May 24 from a public opinion poll conducted by the School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago and the research organization NORC.
According to this data, about 7 out of 10 respondents consider Russia’s actions in Ukraine to be without any justification, and 54% believe that only Russia is committing war crimes during this conflict.
The majority of respondents continue to support the policy of imposing economic sanctions against Russia (58%) and welcoming refugees from Ukraine (56%).
The poll shows that the majority have a negative attitude towards Vladimir Putin (77%), but many have a positive attitude towards Russians (50%) and Russian culture (37%).
At the same time, 36% of Americans think both sides are guilty of war crimes, and only 26% favor the United States playing a bigger role in these events – the same number, 26%, is supportive of the United States being generally eliminated from what or participating in it.
The survey showed that support for sanctions and willingness to accept refugees declined slightly over the year, with 71% supporting sanctions in May 2022 and 64% supporting accepting refugees, but supporting to sanctions and acceptance of refugees is still well over 50%.
There are differences in the opinion of Americans by age and party affiliation. Those aged 45 and over were more likely than younger survey participants to agree that Russia’s actions are an unwarranted attempt to seize Ukrainian territory and overthrow Ukrainian rule. They were also more likely to believe that only Russia had committed war crimes.
However, despite slightly lower support for Ukraine from Republican Party supporters compared to Democratic Party supporters, a large majority of Democrats and Republicans believe that actions in Ukraine have no justification (82% and 69%, respectively).
The Russian American media service spoke with one of its authors, a professor at the School of Public Policy at the University of Chicago, Konstantin Sonin, about the results of the survey.
Danila Galperovich: A figure from the survey alerted me a little, where it is said that 36% of the people questioned speak of wine from Russia and Ukraine. How do you interpret this, what factors contribute to the fact that such a figure has developed?
Konstantin Sonin: On the whole, it should be understood that American society generally pays little attention to what is happening abroad. And what they know is based on very little information. I would say that in general the survey shows a greater adequacy, ie Americans generally understand who the aggressor is, who bombs foreign cities, whose army must leave a foreign country. However, maybe people don’t want to appear uncritical, so they’re partly saying Ukraine is somehow to blame for the conflict.
DG: So, in your opinion, the reason they say that is just their desire to appear more or less impartial?
KS: Yes. It seems to me that in general the poll results show very high support, I would say, by historical standards, very high support for Ukraine compared to other countries that the United States has supported. However, partly to appear impartial and not to give the impression that Russia is just an “evil empire”, they say that both sides are responsible for the war.
DG: But there is quite powerful coverage of this war in the media, and these media show that Russia is now rocketing kindergartens, which it has tortured and killed in the occupied territories. All major US TV stations, as well as publications that work with text, carry this.
KS: On the one hand, this information is available. On the other hand, popular TV presenters, the same Tucker Carlson, for example, have spent all these months of war either in insinuations or direct accusations against Ukraine, against Zelenskyy in this conflict, invoking the fact that Americans never have one opinion on all issues. This fits well with the agenda of Tucker Carlson and the Trumpists: “You are deceived, all is not what you think.” Therefore, they like to approach this topic from an angle: “Everyone thinks that Zelenskyy is a hero, but he is in fact a cunning manipulator, pursuing a very complex policy in order to drag us Americans into the war .” That was enough too. So I don’t expect unanimity on this issue.
DG: Only 26% envisage a more active role for the United States in this conflict. What does it reflect?
KS: This reflects, in particular, the fact that recent US military interventions in some global affairs have been unsuccessful for the United States and are perceived to be so. Both the assessment of the invasion of Iraq is now negative and the assessment of the Obama administration’s involvement in the conflict in Syria, even if there has not even been any direct intervention by the United States – nevertheless, it is considered to have failed. It seems to me that the fact that people are generally afraid of something like American intervention is the right attitude. Moreover, the isolationists are traditionally strong in America, and the experience of the last decades lends strength to the isolationists.
DG: So he strengthened their position?
KS: He strengthened their position. But we must understand that the unprecedented Russian attack on Ukraine – completely unprovoked, creating the worst possible image with tanks occupying the territory, with Hitlerite overtones in Putin’s words, with the fact that Russia annexed parts of another country – all this outweighs the natural isolationist weight in American society.
DG: The fact that Americans in principle (more than 50%) are ready to accept refugees, and generally show an active humanism in this survey, speaking above all of their good attitude towards Russians and refugees from Ukraine – for you, it was expected?
KS: From the beginning of this conflict, one of the things that surprised all outside observers was the way the refugees were treated. Moreover, in countries that were not at all famous for their desire to accept refugees in recent years – the Baltic countries, Poland, Germany and the United States have welcomed Ukrainian refugees with open arms ( especially in Germany and Poland). This is due to several factors. First, with Russian aggression, because unlike the refugees fleeing the unknown civil war in Syria, or the refugees fleeing Mexican drug cartels, or the refugees fleeing poverty in Guatemala, planes are visible here, rocket attacks, people with children are being rescued. This, of course, greatly simplifies acceptance. Besides, it also makes it easier to accept that Ukrainians are people who look exactly like Poles, Germans and Americans. For example, in American states where Trumpist sentiment is particularly strong, and where for many people “fighting immigration” is just code words for racism, for them Ukrainians are not the object of their racism.
DG: Did you have the impression, based on the results of this poll, that the American fatigue in supporting Ukraine will accumulate, and that, for example, could affect the role of the United States in all this? after the end of active hostilities – for example, to support the court for aggression or demand that Russia pay damages to Ukraine?
KS: I see absolutely no sign of fatigue in supporting Ukraine as it falls victim to Russian aggression. I have some doubts about the extent to which compensation for damages and the prosecution of criminals will be supported later – it will be a different reality after Russia withdraws its troops from Ukrainian territory. The voices of those who say a new page needs to be turned – those voices will be heard much louder. But now there is no sign of that. Moreover, I know perfectly well that now in the Kremlin, Putin’s American courtiers, of course, feed him that Trump will be elected in 2024, that something will change – these are all fairy tales from the same place where “Kiev in three days” comes from. No, even if there is a Republican majority, even if Donald Trump becomes president, support for Ukraine will continue at about the same level. As long as Russian military aggression continues , there is no indication that this support is decreasing. And among Republicans it is also high. Unfortunately, such a survey does not show smaller categories, but I think that if Republicans were divided into different groups, then it would also become clear that there is an isolationist wing, and there is an international wing, the classic Republican heart. The isolationists are not going anywhere, but they do not have much prospect for growth. As they represent one-sixth of the electorate, so they will be that sixth of the electorate.
DG: And the fact that Americans over 45 clearly perceive Russian aggression more harshly, pass harsher judgments on what is happening – among them there are more people who believe that only Russia is committing war crimes, and they condemn the seizure of territory more unconditionally than young people – what could be the reason?
KS: That’s a very good question. It has to do with what youth and leftism mean in the United States right now. I can say that for a person of my generation, for people in their fifties, looking at the results of polls, for example, on support for Israel and Palestine among American youth, it also looks incredible. It seems that people see the same rockets flying over Israeli cities, but young people think that Israel is responsible for this conflict. It seems to me that among young Americans there is a significant percentage of people who are initially very critical of the United States itself, and then they express it in different terms. For example, they see themselves as anti-imperialists, despite the fact that they see the United States as the only empire. The young American anti-imperialist believes that the world should be divided into spheres of influence – there is Russian, there is Chinese, there is Brazilian, but only the United States should not have such a sphere of influence. I don’t know of any other explanation. It seems to me that this is the specificity of the current appearance of left-wing youth in the United States.
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