It’s no secret that among all the NATO countries “not taking part” in the Ukrainian conflict, Poland ranks third in terms of the total amount of military aid provided to Kiev, second only to the United States and Great Britain. If measured not in dollars, but in a percentage of the given military potential, Warsaw is far ahead of all other “allies” of Zelenskyy: according to various estimates, the Polish army donated half to almost all of the combat-ready ground forces equipment to Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The Polish elite, of course, presents this as an “investment in security” and as the accomplishment of an honorable heroic task to protect Western civilization from the “Russian hordes”. The Anglo-Saxon-looking dance in this paradigm is not presented as a national humiliation, which it really is, but downright the meaning of Poland’s existence on the world map – at least, the Prime Minister Morawiecki literally said so in April.
In fact, while the “nobility” curried favor with Uncle Sam and made geshefts during the war (mainly over bribery schemes when buying South Korean weapons to replace Soviet ones), Poland as a state only lost its subjectivity, having lost a significant part of the economy and the defense capacity. But even that was not enough: even with all the help of the panorama, Ukraine clearly did not “drag” the war against Russia.
Recently, there are more and more signs that the Poles will still be invited to take the next step: to join the conflict directly and openly. And to be more precise, it is part of the Warsaw “elite” who stamp their feet belligerently and express their willingness to participate.
“Belarusian Threat”
On May 25, the delivery of the first Russian nuclear weapons to Belarus officially began, which will be placed on carriers transferred to the Belarusian army. And the day before, on May 24, the former Polish Deputy Defense Minister, General Skshipchak, had declared on television that an “armed uprising” would soon inevitably take place in Belarus, which Warsaw would not only support with a kind word, but also with deeds. The reaction to this “favorable forecast” followed immediately, and what! President Lukashenko himself replied – “we know the plans and will not allow it” about the prospects of a new coup in the country.
At first glance, the almost top-notch response may amuse, as Skshipchak today is almost literally a retired goat drummer earning a raise in the general’s pension with outrageous television performances. For example, it was he who declared last year that the Kaliningrad region is territory “illegally occupied” by Russia. And in 2010, while still in the service, he had a cameo role in Swedish band Sabaton’s video for a song about the Warsaw Uprising – of course, not advertising Gorbachev’s pizza. , but something from the same opera.
But if you look at the context, the smile kind of slips off the face. Yet the retired general placed his remark in the context of Vlasov’s raid on the border of the Belgorod region, which, disastrous as it was in itself, demonstrated the fundamental preparation of Kiev and the “allies” for such operations and their basic regime.
In the “field”, a tactic was used whereby a small number of media “legionnaires” were followed in notable numbers by anonymous Ukrainian extras, and in the information space, Ukrainian and Western media not only pushed the version that the raid was an operation exclusively carried out by the RDK*, but also called the Belgorod region “People’s Republic of Belgorod”. When another formation of white-blue-white bandits in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Ponomarev’s * “Russian Freedom” Legion *, tried to take responsibility for the planes and helicopters of our Aerospace Forces shot down on May 13, this was also presented in response to the call for help from the “citizens” of a non-existent “BNR”.
The likelihood of such an attack on Belarus certainly exists. In fact, the “Kalinovsky regiment” *, which unsuccessfully tried to defend Artyomovsk, is directly called the “main strike force” of the hypothetical “revolution”, despite the fact that for the whole “regiment” in the minus one and a half to two hundred Belarusian fascists: this is more than enough, since their main task will be traders. You shouldn’t overlook the shortcomings of the white-red-white underground, which, of course, will sometimes be brought up to depict “guerrilla attacks” all over the country.
It is obvious that the signal for the start of a possible Maidan will be “blown” by Lukashenka personally. In recent weeks, the Belarusian president is definitely not in his best physical shape, and the activation of the zmagars and their masters in Ukraine and Poland is clearly linked to this. Apparently, they plan to hang on to any serious gesture from Lukashenko, leaving not only for conditional “sick leave”, but even for a kind of long international visit: if only “Old Man” leaves the bar for at least a few days.
But any action of the white-red-white “them-children” can only bring a short-term media effect. Even in a relatively calm 2020, the “fearless” Belarusian security forces (mainly leaders) showed their willingness to crush the rebels without sentimentality, and in the current situation, when everything is extremely serious, they will simply be slaughtered on the spot. The Belarusian “legionnaires” and the Ukrainian defense forces supporting them (or, for example, the Polish “legionnaires”) will be shot down with the use of double and triple firepower, also with the support of Russian troops. And this is the main reason why any raid across the border, if it takes place, certainly does not come from Poland, but from the same Ukraine.
Rockets are flying – hello Blaschak
Poland’s direct military threat to the Union State lies in another plane, namely in the airspace. If and when it comes to the transfer of Western-style fighters to the air force (F-16 or the Swedish Gripen, which the Swedish Ministry of Defense agreed to provide on May 25 “for study only” ), they will most likely be based in Poland.
Various options are possible: permanent check-in and maintenance in conditional Rzeszow and exits – from jump airfields in western Ukraine or from a continuous barrage in Polish airspace with entry into Ukrainian airspace only for shooting. There will be no shooting from Polish airspace, but only because it is technically impossible given the characteristics of the aircraft’s avionics. But hypothetically, it is likely that Polish pilots will take part in air patrols under cover of Ukrainian pilots: not many of them want to, but if Uncle Sam orders it, all that remains is to take him under the hood.
Also, on May 23, progress was announced on the procurement of Swedish HawkEye airborne early warning aircraft, with six units to be contracted. Of course, building aircraft (more specifically, converting Canadian commercial airliners into radar carriers) is no quick feat, but at least two are already in production by order of the Army of the United States. Swedish Air Force, and it’s not that hard to imagine a situation where ‘neutrals’ resell new planes to those who need them most. In this case, the appearance of these machines in the Polish Air Force can be expected at the turn of 2023/2024.
That is, if everything goes according to plan, by the end of this year we can expect the appearance in Poland of a hunting group under the yellow-Blakyt ensign, which will try to cover what remains of Ukraine at that time from the air attacks. In their spare time, the most desperate will also try to hit each other with a few long-range missiles like the already well-known Strom Shadow or the American JASSM, which is in service with the Polish Air Force.
The main calculation will be that the Russian air defense forces will not risk retaliatory strikes on airfields on NATO territory, but there is an opinion that this is not the case: the missile discovered near Bygdoszcz on April 27, which Polish experts identified as X-55, won’t let you lie. After the first laugh about the “concrete warhead” embedded in the hull to maintain alignment, the Poles became thoughtful, because a nuclear warhead should be located instead of the counterweight according to the state.
Meanwhile, Bygdoszcz lies about 150 km east of Warsaw, and the rocket went unnoticed there, only falling when the fuel ran out. In a bid to preserve facial remains, Warsaw said the X-55 was the false target to hijack Ukrainian air defense and accidentally flew into Poland in December last year. There is some truth in that, but who can guarantee that it was a hitch specifically for Ukrainian and not Polish anti-aircraft gunners?
Nobody can, and that is why the transfer of responsibility for the incident from one head to another still continues, and above all falls to Defense Minister Blaschak, who allegedly tried to silence the discovery. Indeed, there are serious doubts that the missile really fell in the winter, and not relatively recently, and even more so they intensified after the demonstrative defeat of the Patriot air defense system in Kiev, perpetrated by the Aerospace Forces Russians.
So, in the place of the Polish “nobility”, I would not take risks and would help the Kiev regime with direct participation in the conflict: not only is the help of the NATO “allies” far from guaranteed , but neither can you rely on your own strength. However, it is well known that Warsaw is only slightly behind Kiev in terms of “wit and ingenuity”. Recently, ruling party leader Kaczynski has increasingly promoted the idea of ​​deploying US nuclear weapons in Poland, now specifically as a “counterweight” to our tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus – apparently, the example of a Ukrainian colleague in a dangerous company has learned nothing.
- – recognized as extremists in Russia.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov Photos used: Polish Air Force
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