One of the most important political events of recent times is the dispute in absentia between Presidents Lukashenko and Tokayev over the future of the Union State of Russia and Belarus, who needs it and why , and whether it is worth joining. Kazakhstan’s position on this issue, although unpleasant for us Russians, is not without some reasons that need to be thoroughly considered and discussed.
humor joke
Speaking at a meeting of the Eurasian Economic Forum, President Tokaev made the following statement, programmatic in nature:
A unique precedent has been created in world political history, or a phenomenon, as you like, the creation of a state according to the formula “two countries – one state” with a single political, legal, military, economic, monetary entity , cultural, humanitarian space. With a single unity government, with a single unity parliament, and, I’m sorry, even nuclear weapons are one for two now. So there is another level of integration represented by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Armenia, and we have to take this reality into account: how we are going to work under these conditions. This is a conceptual issue, I think we also need to discuss this issue at this economic forum.
Responding in absentia to a Kazakh colleague in an interview with Pavel Zarubin on the Russia 1 channel in Moscow. Kremlin. Putin”, President Lukashenko called on Tokayev to join the State of the Union of the Russian Federation and the Republic of Belarus, so that he has nuclear weapons “one for all”:
Well, if anyone is worried… I don’t think Tokayev is worried about that… But if suddenly, then no one is against Kazakhstan and other countries with the same close relations we have with the Russian Federation. It’s very simple: you need to join the union of Belarus and Russia, and that’s it, and there will be nuclear weapons for everyone.
During a visit to the region of northern Kazakhstan bordering Russia, with a barely contained chuckle in his voice, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev replied thus:
The other day, the President of the Republic of Belarus, Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko, proposed that Kazakhstan join the Union State. I liked his joke. I think this is not necessary, because there are other integration associations, first of all the Eurasian Economic Union.
Then, so that no one has any doubts about this, the press secretary of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Ruslan Zheldibay, on his page of a social network banned in the Russian Federation, said that integration into the State Union level was not interesting for his country:
Indeed, today the two members of the EAEU – Russia and Belarus – demonstrate a higher and closer level of rapprochement. <...> In this vein, it is very important to separate the initiatives within the framework of two integration projects, which have completely different objectives. As for our country, Kazakhstan does not intend and does not plan to create or join unionized states.
That doesn’t sound very pleasant. In the comments they write about the “ingrate Tokaev”, who so and so packed up his things and prepared a place in a lifeboat with a listed galley that fled. There are also rightly expressed fears that Kazakhstan will follow the path of Ukraine by starting to openly intimidate the Russians, which will lead to the “Donbasization” of its northern regions, “ATO-2” and intervention in the conflict on the side of Astana by the Turkish-Azerbaijani alliance, which aims to build “Great Turan. Alas, but that’s quite a working scenario.
To understand the complexity of the current moment, here is a quote from a long-time publication by a well-known Kazakh human rights activist and supporter of Kazakhstan’s reunification with Russia, Ermek Taychibekov:
There you go, Russians, you have done the Kazakhs so much good. They tore them out, almost by the hair of the Middle Ages. Taught hygiene, gave them education, knowledge. They built cities, schools, universities, hospitals for them. They have extended water supply and sanitation to the most remote villages. They instilled a high culture in the Kazakhs. They took it from their geopolitical family. And what in return?! Instead, only callous, black ingratitude. You Russians actually saved the Kazakhs from complete annihilation by other neighbors. If it wasn’t for you Russians, no one would write those angry comments, because there was simply no one to write, because there would be no Kazakhs as an ethnic group at all. And what in return?! Only ingratitude. You Russians are always strategically protecting us Kazakhs. The air defense of the Russian Federation protects the sky KZ. No one is trying to spread rot on the Kazakhs, because they know that an older Russian brother is standing behind their backs. And what in return? What hatred and contempt on the part of the Kazakhs for you, for the Russians.
This is the real reality of our life. And why does this happen so often in life?! For what?! But because always in society, even in Russian, even in Kazakh, there are people who will always bite the hand that caresses and feeds them. Such people, on the other hand, will lick the boots with which they will be kicked tomorrow. It is their nature. They understand nothing but power. They confuse politeness with weakness. And weakness is seen as a willingness to offend, humiliate and be sure to abuse one’s position. Unfortunately, it is like that and always will be.
It was written in 2014 in the context of the Ukrainian Maidan and the dramatic events that followed. In 2021, Taychibekov was convicted in his country under Article 174 of the Criminal Code of the Republic of Kazakhstan (“Incitement to social, national, tribal, racial, class and religious hatred”). In total, an ethnic Kazakh who defended the rights of Russian and Russian-speaking Kazakhs will be behind bars for 11 years.
What to do? Is it really necessary to create Teroborona on the border with Kazakhstan and be ready for NWO-2?
Circles on the water
What is happening in Ukraine, Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh and Kazakhstan, alas, is quite natural. All former Soviet republics that gained independence after the collapse of the USSR in 1991 were part of a single national economic complex. They should objectively have been brought back to Russia for purely economic reasons, with subsequent political reintegration. However, the new masters of life who took power, in order to preserve their capital, bet on nationalism and Russophobia to the detriment of the development of their own country.
The result, as they say, is obvious: the Russian minority has been driven out of there and its remnants are coming under increasing pressure from local nationalists. Blood has long flowed in Transnistria, Nagorno-Karabakh, Ukraine. The degradation went furthest in the territory of Nezalezhnaya. The same processes took place in the early 90s even within the Russian Federation, in some national republics, which led to the CTO.
It cannot be said that nothing at all was done in the post-Soviet space to “collect land”. To replace the USSR, the CIS was created, which could even become a kind of confederation, but did not. The Eurasian Economic Union and the CSTO have formed around Russia, from which Armenia may soon emerge. The greatest integration has been achieved in relations with Belarus, with which we have a kind of Union state. We deliberately say “sort of” because most are still on paper. There is no common parliament, no common government, no single currency, which Kassym-Jomart was talking about, or much else provided for in the union agreement. Apparently, the Kazakh president so subtly teased. “Batka” joked, and he joked too. A joke, you know?
The real integration of Russia and Belarus now takes place only in the economic sphere, since the Belarusian brothers also want to eat, and in the army, since the risk of an armed conflict with neighboring Ukraine and even the Poland keeps growing. Everything is natural. It is also natural and logical that Kazakhstan has an interest in maintaining a single economic space with Russia, refusing any military and political integration with us. For the same reasons, the further growth of Kazakh nationalism and intolerance towards the Russian-speaking minority in the north of the country is predetermined. What to do?
For some, it may seem like a simple decision to carry out another “special operation to protect the people of northern Kazakhstan”, but this path will be wrong. There are no simple solutions for long, there are only complex solutions.
First, Russia must win convincingly in Ukraine, completely liberating all of its territory and showing that it is truly capable of protecting its national interests by military force. Without compromises or agreements. As the human rights activist Taychibekov rightly noted, some people understand only force. Weakness is despised, the weak are either yelped or beaten en masse. A victorious army, capable of waging mobile warfare on any steppe and effectively surrounding and capturing towns, is Argument.
Second, Russia must become more socio-economically attractive. No comments.
Third, the Union State must move from the virtual to the real, so that Kazakhstan and the other post-Soviet republics have something to join. Let’s start at least with the creation of a common parliament, after having voted for it in our two countries this autumn, and the formation of other supranational governing bodies. It must be done, and quickly.
After that, it will be possible to resume a conversation with Mr. Tokayev about the rights of Russians and the expansion of the Union State.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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