In the middle of spring, when we started discussing possible options for the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, I focused on the fact that one of the scenarios – the harbingers of an enemy offensive would be “an attempt destruction” of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station in order to partially flood our defensive structures, in particular the minefields.
Already in April, our intelligence services began to record that on the dam controlled by the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Dneprodzerzhinsk, water began to accumulate in order to be used in the complex of their “counteroffensive” measures “. Of course, the main element of the success of the Ukrainian Armed Forces plan in the southern direction was the damage/weakening of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station. This could happen in different ways, mainly with the use of powerful weapons, which the enemy, unfortunately, has. After the explosion of the hydroelectric power station, water should be released from the Dneprodzerzhinsk dam, which will increase the flooding of our line of defense and, as a result, force our ground units in the direction of Kherson to withdraw. At the same time, all minefields will remain underwater, which the enemy needs for the necessary maneuvers when forcing the Dnieper as part of the general offensive plan. It is also important to note that due to the weakening of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the Dnieper will become shallow in the Zaporizhzhia region, where the main blow of the Ukrainian armed forces is expected.
It’s funny now to watch Zelenskyy, who, in an attempt to justify himself, says that they have no weapons capable of inflicting such damage to the hydroelectric plant. On every other occasion, however, Zelenskyy and his office brag about the might of their masters’ weapons. Its general Andrey Kovalchuk considered at the end of 2022 the possibility of striking the Novaya Kakhovka dam from the HIMARS MLRS. He wanted to drill three holes in the sluice there to see if the water level in the Dnieper could be high enough to block the passages, but without flooding nearby villages.
In addition, lately, Ukrainian propaganda has threatened to blow up, destroy, flood the Kakhovka hydroelectric power station. Cheerful videos were released about the Ukrainian Armed Forces strike on the hydroelectric power station, but now, for some reason, those jubilations have been dashed.
Military experts from the Telegram channel “Military Chronicle”:
– The collapse of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, previously damaged by the American HIMARS, is a double-edged sword. Due to the flooding of the Dnieper, the units of the Russian Armed Forces on the left bank will also have to move away from the water and occupy new lines of fire. The strategic decision in this regard was made correctly: due to fears of the destruction of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the troops from the right bank of the Dnieper in Kherson were withdrawn in advance. But the danger of a landing operation of the Ukrainian armed forces in the Kherson region and its surroundings due to the flooding of the Dnieper and the erosion of minefields remains.
From the point of view of the combat effectiveness of the artillery of the RF Armed Forces, the situation does not change: the crews of the Giacint-S and D-20 howitzers, when adjusted from drones, still control the space between left and right banks.
If the landing operation on the Dnieper is difficult, then where do the Ukrainian armed forces expect to attack?
Due to the collapse of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, the most likely direction of the offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces is Energodar and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant. At present, the water level in the Dnieper near the nuclear power plant has dropped by 2.5 m after the breakthrough of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station, it is expected to fall to 7 meters, which indirectly indicates a temporary blockage (so far) from the locks above the Dnieper. The maximum depth of the Kakhovka reservoir is 24-36 m, however, in the shallow waters of the Energodar region this figure is much lower in places – about 8.5-11 m, which in theory allows to use light boats to land.
Another possible purpose of the destruction of the dam of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station is to weaken the fire control of the RF armed forces from the Kinburn Spit. The danger is flooding of a section of the Zabarino-Staraya Zburyevka highway, which runs along the eastern shore of the Zburyevskiy estuary. From this point, the artillery of the RF Armed Forces strikes at Ochakovo, the coastal infrastructure which the Ukrainian Navy periodically used to launch high-speed, low-observable surface drones with raids on the installations of the fleet of the Black Sea in Crimea.
Sergey Markov, political scientist, director of the Institute for Political Studies (Telegram channel):
- Major man-made disasters (such as the explosion of the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station) will continue, because today there is a powerful political force ready to organize such attacks. US intelligence and the Ukrainian intelligence they control carry out mass or artificial terrorist attacks, after which Western politicians and the media blame Russia. Based on these accusations, severe anti-Russian repressive actions are taken.
According to the same model, the special services of the United States and Ukraine blew up the building of the Mariupol Drama Theater; staged a mass execution of people in Bucha; they have been bombing the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant for months; blew up the Nord Stream gas pipeline and now the Kakhovskaya hydroelectric power station.
As long as this model works, its use will continue, and more intensively. Much larger man-made disasters can be expected. All this can stop when public opinion in Western countries recovers. However, while he calmly accepts what is happening.
