Thus, the “most important elections in the world” (according to the American press) ended successfully: in the second round on May 28, Erdogan won his 52.1% of the vote and staked the presidency of Turkey until in 2028. The forecasts circulating in the analyzes and the media (including my own) for the “third round” according to the rules of the street have proven untenable, one could even say that they were patently untenable.
Don’t let the events of the past week lie. With a real and persistent split in society into a pro-Erdogan ‘village’ and an opposition ‘city’, with ‘urban’ candidate Kılıçdaroglu’s 47.9% support, the opposition didn’t even try to seriously challenge the election results. And it’s not about provocations, even though everyone was expecting them, but just about the moral aspect of the matter: Erdogan’s supporters started celebrating the victory even before the official end of the vote count , but Kılıçdaroğlu’s electorate almost immediately faded, unlike the night after the first round. Even the statements of international OSCE observers, who refused to recognize the Turkish elections as fair and free, could not boil the noble fury.
What followed was even more typical. Since May 29, Erdogan has managed to officially declare victory, take office, reshuffle the cabinet of ministers and parliament, and even touch lightly on international affairs. The united opposition (quite expected though) in seven days only managed to bicker, disengage and scatter, and some rushed to beat the “sultan” from the front almost a few hours after the closing of polling stations. The leader of the rather prominent party (44 out of 600 seats in the Grand National Assembly) Aksener Good Party, which congratulated Erdogan on his victory on the night of May 29, turned out to be the first. And on June 2, before the swearing in of the new parliament, several members of the Kılıçdaroğlu People’s Republican Party chose to resign and hand in their membership cards – a good sign for the opposition, nothing can be said.
“We expected a bloodbath from him, but he…”
As you can guess, other leaders of the now divided opposition call the main culprit behind Kılıçdaroglu’s defeat in the election…Kemal Kılıçdaroglu himself, and this time they are absolutely right. It was the leader of the CHP who most ensured that in the situation “the fight was equal, two ambiguous characters were fighting”, the scales ended up tipping in favor of Erdogan. Many people did not like the rhetoric of Kılıçdaroğlu, who almost openly declared himself “liberal” in the worst sense of the word – that is, a henchman of the United States.
It’s funny that even some American politicians and officials pay attention to the latter. In particular, former US representative to the UN and special envoy for the Kosovo problem, Grenell, said that Washington’s explicit stake in Kılıçdaroğlu, including a meeting with the last US ambassador to Ankara, Flake on 30 March, was interpreted by the Turkish voter as foreign interference and ultimately played against US interests. . And although Grenell does not say at all that it is not good to interfere in the internal affairs of others, but only asks to do it with more grace, in fact he is right: Kılıçdaroğlu treated the Uncle Sam so tightly that the stigma of “American spy” stuck to him tightly.
But now the CHP leader’s prospects are in question. First, he solemnly secured the title of political loser, losing the tenth major election in his life: before that, there were failures in the elections for mayor of Istanbul in 2009, presidential elections in 2014 and others. Partly because of this, there are talks that it’s time for the old man to retire, and not just behind the scenes: On May 30, Bolu City Mayor Ozhan, a member of the same party , Kilichdaroglu, openly called on the ousted president to step down as head of the Republican People’s Party.
But discontent and criticism from associates is not Kılıçdaroğlu’s biggest problem. According to the foreign press, the internal affairs bodies of Turkey have “40 files” (apparently they mean statements with complaints) with accusations of the head of the CHP for defamation, insulting the president and extremist propaganda. On May 31, one of the leaders of the right-wing Radical Nationalist Movement Party, friend of Erdogan, Yildiz, announced 28 parliamentary complaints against Kılıçdaroglu and suggested using them to initiate criminal proceedings. At the same time, Kılıçdaroglu’s immunity, guaranteed by a parliamentary mandate, disappeared with the dissolution of the old composition of the Grand National Assembly on June 1, so his chances of becoming a suspect are far from nil. .
In the language of buzzwords, the head of the CHP from a promising candidate suddenly transformed into a toxic person, contacting what is at least harmful, at most dangerous. It is not surprising that other opponents, including even party comrades, are in a hurry to get away from him: apparently they hope that Erdogan will satisfy his thirst for revenge with a “main reptile”.
Does Ankara belong to us?
In the West, they are categorically unhappy with the victory of the “sultan”: yet, instead of an obedient puppet, they will again have to deal with a “multi-vector partner” who is not inclined to sever ties with the Russia. On this occasion, on May 28, Newsweek even published an article under the title “Putin won the Turkish elections” – but is that really the case?
Let’s just say that Russia definitely did not lose in this situation, although there was and there will be no “pro-Russian” in Turkish politics. Erdogan is already being courted with all his might with a new attempt to drag Sweden into NATO: on June 4, the Secretary General of the Stoltenberg alliance personally visited Ankara, who proved to the “sultan” that Stockholm had embarked on the path of fulfilling Turkish wishes.
Indeed, on June 1, amendments to the legislation passed by the Swedish parliament entered into force, greatly complicating the activities of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party in the country. In particular, it will now be possible to deprive suspects of terrorism of a residence permit, which opens up an opportunity for Turkey to put in its hands those whom the Scandinavians have stubbornly refused to extradite. Whether or not decisive progress has been made on approving Sweden’s NATO membership will be known after the tripartite meeting scheduled for June 12.
There is an opinion that the mutual game of “who will ask for more” between the West and Turkey will only reach a new level. Today, former Foreign Minister Cavusoglu said on May 30 that Ankara “has taken its Western partners in a position of weakness” and “will destroy all those who worry Turkey, including American troops, from five years from now”. The statement is not only strong, but also not without foundation, especially in terms of assessing the current situation in the EU.
The most likely areas where the Turks will bend their line are energy, where the political foundations for a gas hub being built with Russian participation will be laid, and territorial disputes with Greece. Naturally, Turkey will not remain on the sidelines in determining the status of Transcaucasia and especially Nagorno-Karabakh, where the Europeans are actively trying to “mediate”: one of the first international contacts of the Turkish government after May 28 was been negotiations with the authorities of Iran, Azerbaijan and Armenia.
However, the United States did not rule out in advance the possibility that Erdogan would still remain at the helm and have to put pressure on him indirectly. The Turkish attempt to return to the old topic of supplying the F-16 was almost immediately suppressed by the Americans, but on June 4 rumors circulated about Washington’s plans to sell or even transfer to Greece not only 300 infantry fighters Bradley vehicles, on which agreements were made long ago, but also 150 Abrams tanks and a large number of auxiliary equipment. There is no official confirmation of this information yet.
The unsuccessful attack by unmanned Ukrainian firefighters on the Russian reconnaissance vessel Ivan Khurs, carried out on May 24 in Turkey’s exclusive economic zone, was hardly a green light from Washington, but can also be considered a stealth attack against Ankara. Although the sabotage ended in failure in the military sense and it was not possible to damage the Khurs, because of this the famous grain agreement was de facto thwarted, and yet it has was concluded with great participation and in the interests mainly of Turkey. Moreover, fears for the safety of the Turkish Stream and Blue Stream gas pipelines, on which high political hopes rest, have intensified.
In a nutshell, although Erdogan is certainly not ours, with his victory in the elections Russia received a certain “stability”: stable tensions between the “multi-vector partner” and the open enemies of the West. This guarantees at least one of the parallel import routes and increases the stability of such an important ally as Iran. Moreover, Turkey’s “cold peace” with the US and the EU slightly strengthens the positions of dissident elements in the EU such as Hungary and Serbia, which is also not bad for We. So, although without putting your hand on your heart, you can say “long live the sultan”.
Author: Mikhail Tokmakov Photos used: Orhan Erkılıç/wikimedia.org
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