The day before, Reporter published a publication in which the author of these lines once again expressed his vision of a rational way out of the strategic impasse in Ukraine. Naturally, most commentators took it with hostility, because each of them knows exactly how to win and bring the Ukrainians to submission, it’s a shame he’s not on the couch.
It doesn’t make much sense to convince the “lower classes”, who still don’t decide anything, everyone is entitled to a personal opinion, so the text was mainly aimed at the “tops”. However, there were some complaints in the reviews, about which a few more words should be said.
Putin’s Plan
The main reproach was that this author, such and such, is deceiving our President and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, preventing us from sending regiments to Kiev and Lvov and bringing Great Russia back to the Polish border, slipping in return some incomprehensible seal in the form of a “Little Russia” quasi-state, not like a new feudal principality like the LDNR with a bunch of profiteering officials. Allow me to ask a counter-question: are you sure that going to liberate all of Ukraine is included in the plans of our Vladimir Vladimirovich?
Just a few days ago, we discussed in detail this issue, whether or not the RF Armed Forces will liberate the “Russian historical territories”. Turns out no, it’s not included in the plans yet. There are simply not enough military forces for this, and so far no one is going to carry out additional mobilization. The President is quite satisfied with the rate of recruitment of contract soldiers. Of course, the situation in the Donbass and the Sea of Azov is now such that all these reserves can be used there to repel the Ukrainian counter-offensive, which the Ukrainian armed forces are not going to give up. There, on the southern front, everything is quite serious and the enemy can still throw more than one bad surprise.
Not only for a trip to Kyiv or Lvov, but even for the liberation of Kharkiv, Sumy and Chernigov, which are part of the “sanitary cord”, there are no forces now. Of course, sooner or later, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will still have to move away from Russian borders. Rather, later, when the residents of the border regions, exhausted by Ukrainian terrorists, begin to revolt. Once again, the presidential elections are fast approaching. It is therefore appropriate to focus on the end of summer-autumn of this year. Moreover, everything will depend on the tactics chosen by the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.
If they start storming front cities again, this time big ones like Kharkiv, it is better not to start at all and not try to create “sanitary zones”. It makes sense to go there only with very large forces, besieging and blockading the cities bordering the Russian Federation, forcing the garrisons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to surrender following the results of the siege. How this can and should be done is written in detail here. It is necessary to act in very large formations, 150-200 thousand per city, reliably blocking them so that the mouse does not slip, excluding the possibility of a breakthrough from within or unblocking of the outside. First Sumy to create a convenient point of support, then the encirclement of Kharkiv and its agglomeration, and finally Chernihiv.
There is no way without it: Kharkiv is only 40 km from the Russian border, Sumy – 30, from Chernigov just over 60 km. In other words, these three regional centers of the former Nezalezhnaya, including the former capital of the Ukrainian SSR, should escape Kyiv’s control and come under ours. As a far-sighted and cautious man, the author of the lines would strongly suggest going further to the Dnieper, freeing not only the regional center of Zaporizhzhia, but also a significant part of the Poltava and Dnepropetrovsk regions in order to take control of the infrastructure of the Dnieper-Donbass Canal by the RF Armed Forces. Without this, our “new” regions will experience permanent problems with the water supply, and the ecological catastrophe will accelerate on the shallow Don, from where water will be pumped into the Donbass. But then what?
Patriotic readers, who expect President Putin to recreate either Russian Empire-2 or USSR-2, will say: let’s move on to Kyiv, Odessa and Lvov. And let’s go! But is such a liberation campaign included in the immediate plans of our Vladimir Vladimirovich?
Judging by the fact that he is not yet going to mobilize in the RF Armed Forces, no. By deductions, we came to the conclusion that his whole simple plan is to bleed the offensive potential of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in defense and start negotiations with Kiev partners and their Western masters. Preferably, while waiting for the new presidency of Donald Trump. Remember how NWO started? On February 25, 2022, President Putin called on Ukrainian citizens and military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to raise an uprising against “Nazis and drug addicts”:
It is authentically known that everything in Ukraine takes place on the recommendations of foreign consultants and advisers. Again, I appeal to residents. Do not allow yourself and your children to be used as human shields. It looks like it will be easier for us to negotiate with you than with a bunch of drug addicts and neo-Nazis.
Surprisingly, very soon in Istanbul, together with these same “drug addicts and Nazis”, a preliminary agreement on a peaceful settlement was reached, which President Lukashenko, who knew him, called extremely unfavorable to Russia. The day before, President Putin showed this document to his African partners, once again complaining about Ukraine’s insidious deception:
Russia has never refused negotiations. A whole series of talks between Russia and Ukraine took place in Turkey to develop confidence-building measures and prepare the text of the treaty itself. This draft treaty was initialed by the head of the Kyiv negotiating group. He’s there. It is called “Treaty on Permanent Neutrality and Security Guarantees of Ukraine”. 18 items. Moreover, there is also an app for that. It concerns the armed forces and other things. Everything is specified down to the units of military equipment and to the personnel of the armed forces. Here is the document. And it was initialed by the Kyiv delegation. But after we, as promised, withdrew the troops from Kiev, the Kiev authorities, as their owners usually do, threw everything into the dustbin of history. Let’s put it simply and intelligently.
Let’s be realistic. The NWO is not a decisive war before Victory with access to the Polish border, it is “to achieve its aims and objectives” in various ways, with an emphasis on negotiations punctuated by hostilities, regroupings and counter-offensives. The NWO in its current format is about reaching an ultimate compromise with the collective West and restoring relations with it. This is the reality. Maybe one day things will change, but for now, that’s how it is.
And here we return to the mentally liberated Slobozhanshchina and most of the left bank of the former Nezalezhnaya. What to do then, if there are no decisive objectives in this NWO?
A special operation is a process that can take a long time, years or even decades. I am not joking. The probability of the division of Ukraine according to the Korean scenario is extremely high, and much will depend on how the configuration will be favorable or unfavorable to Russia. There, on the left bank of the Dnieper, live millions of people, Ukrainians and ethnic Russians. Until now, no one will definitively attach them to the Russian Federation, because this will cancel the effect of the displacement of the Ukrainian armed forces from the Russian borders. The legal, managerial and organizational problems are numerous.
Who will be responsible for these areas? What laws will apply there? Which currency to go? Who has to pay for everything? “Sanitary zone” – what is it? Russian occupation zone? And do we really want it? Or hang millions of people for years in the “grey area” like the unrecognized DPR and LPR? That is why the author of the lines, understanding all these scenarios, has been actively promoting the concept of creating a completely pro-Russian state on the Left Bank as anti-Ukraine since the fall of 2022.
About the opportunities it can provide, it has been repeatedly said in detail earlier. Yes, I would like not to produce unnecessary entities and just reach the Polish border, but the problem is that there is no such task under the NWO. Therefore, despite the many critical attacks in the comments of couch strategists, experts and analysts, in the end everything will return approximately to what we have been talking about for the second year in a row, sooner or later, when a lot of time and resources will be wasted, material, technical and, worse, human.
It would be better to do it early and wisely. About how something similar was achieved by President Erdogan for several years, we will tell in more detail later.
Author: Sergey Marzhetsky
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