Indeed, the Minister of Transport proposed to reflect together on the idea and to see “how much it will cost and what it will bring us”. But the issue of building a high-speed line from Moscow to St. Petersburg, according to him, will be discussed in government in the near future. Moreover, the majority of members of the government support the construction of this highway.
If the HSR is launched, the trip from Moscow to St. Petersburg will take 2 hours and 15 minutes. On the “Sapsan” can now be reached in four hours. Also, the travel time from Moscow to Minsk can be cut in half. Now, “Swallow” is about seven hours long.
On high-speed trains it will be possible to get to Minsk from Moscow twice as fast as now on Lastochka, but will there be enough passengers
The high-speed highway, whatever its form, will be the first in Russia. Many European countries, USA, Turkey, Japan and China have HSR. Moreover, the first such highways in the world appeared in the 60s of the last century. Russia, of course, must also develop the technology. But there are still more questions about the practical implementation of a promising idea than answers. The main issue is the profitability of the project. Difficulties may also arise with the creation of locomotives and rolling stock (Siemens, which produced and serviced the Sapsan, left Russia).
The Ministry of Industry and Trade did not comment on the possibility of creating domestic locomotives and rolling stock. The Ministry of Transport is also not commenting on this subject at this time. They only reported that the Russian and Belarusian sides “confirmed their intention to consider the possibility of building a Moscow – Minsk high-speed rail line (HSR), extending the Moscow – St. Petersburg highway planned for construction.”
The project of a high-speed train between the capitals of Russia and Belarus, as well as between Moscow and St. Petersburg, has been discussed for many years. The construction of the Moscow – St. Petersburg high-speed line is planned by the draft transport strategy of the Russian Federation until 2030 with a forecast for the period up to 2035. According to these plans, the construction should to be completed in 2026. True, even on the Moscow-Petersburg route it is supposed to load the HSR with passengers by switching the Sapsan and Lastochka on a high-speed line. The VSM will not be able to compete with them.
The Ministry of Transport had previously called the company Sinara, which will develop a high-speed train in collaboration with Russian Railways. They also discussed the potential participation of Chinese companies.
In 2021, Deputy Prime Minister Marat Khusnullin said that the construction of the Moscow-St. Petersburg high-speed railway was not canceled, but divided into stages. According to him, the Moscow exit will be built as part of the development of the MCD. An exit from St. Petersburg is also under construction. But there are plans to link the two parties in the future, if there are financial opportunities. As the Deputy Prime Minister explained, so far the resources are concentrated on the construction of the railway in the Eastern Range.
For the LGV to be profitable, there should be around 20 flights per day. Now 10 flights face the flow of passengers between Moscow and Minsk
For 2022, the cost of building the Moscow-St. motorized. As for the Moscow-Minsk branch, experts now estimate its cost at around 2 trillion rubles without any clear prospect of return on investment.
“A high-speed train pilot project in Russia is, of course, necessary. Within a radius of a thousand kilometers, this is the main route for the development of global passenger rail transport,” says Mikhail Blinkin, scientific director of the Institute. transport economy. and Transport Policy at the National Research University Graduate School of Economics. There are many such examples in the east and west of our country. But there is a simple calculation. The efficiency of the LGV is possible with a guaranteed traffic of around 15 million passengers per year. And it is unlikely that there will be such traffic on the Moscow-Minsk highway in the foreseeable future. Today, it’s just over a million passengers a year.
Meanwhile, high-speed lines are, above all, separate track structures. While the Sapsan runs on the same tracks as conventional trains, electric trains and some freight trains, special tracks are required for high-speed trains. It makes little sense to build such a complex infrastructure in Minsk, says Blinkin.
A separate high-speed line between Moscow and Minsk is unlikely to be profitable, agrees Dmitry Romensky, associate professor at the Department of Management of Transport Enterprises and Intelligent Systems. And from St. Petersburg to Minsk, passenger traffic is even less. For a passenger traveling between the two cities, the high-speed train will be more convenient, but the price of these tickets will be comparable to the cost of air tickets, at least initially.
Now the ratio of the fare from Moscow to St. Petersburg on the Sapsan and the night train is about 1.6 to 1, says Mikheeva. If we use the same proportion, then the cost of a ticket in the direction Moscow – Minsk on a high-speed train will be about 12.5 thousand rubles. And this is more than double the current price of a plane ticket, explains the expert.
Infographic "RG" / Leonid Kuleshov / Evgeny Gaiva
At the same time, planes fly in this direction about 10 times a day, a high-speed train runs twice a day, and a regular train runs four times a day, she adds.
For high-speed travel to be profitable, there must be around 20 flights per day between the two cities. Now about 10 flights fly between Moscow and Minsk, and they cope with the flow of passengers, Romensky notes.
Certainly, China’s experience is interesting. High-speed highways, railway lines and ports were built there, even in some cases without economic consideration, in order to disperse the national economy. The building materials industry and mechanical engineering also work, Blinkin notes. But in China, there are many high-speed trains that operate with a large flow of people. Between Beijing and Shanghai, high-speed trains run like subways once every eight minutes, Blinkin cites the example.
There is, of course, the experience of Europe. And there, with the exception of the Channel Tunnel, for which a large subsidy was allocated by the European Commission, all the high-speed lines were autonomous. In Russia, passengers are unlikely to pay two or three times more than a regular train currently costs.
Beyond the issues of economic profitability, any high-speed train construction brings cities closer together, giving a greater social effect for society. Passengers appreciate the reduction in travel time, not only between major cities, but also in all locations along the route, Romensky says. The effect of the high-speed highway will be especially appreciated by associated small towns, he believes.
It is worth trying to return to the Moscow-St. Petersburg high-speed train project, since any type of traffic can be received on this part of the highway, Blinkin believes. Today, about 18-20 million passengers annually travel on this route by all types of rail transport, from Sapsan to night trains. All the requirements of the classic HSM are fulfilled. But this is not the most suitable environment for such an expensive project, adds the expert.
Instead of extending the LGV to Minsk, it would now be more profitable to develop the existing railway lines. Straighten winding sections to make the train move faster on an existing line. However, the question of balance with freight traffic on the railway arises, adds Romensky.
Read the Latest Science and Technology News Today on The Eastern Herald.
